Is 1.5° C Unachievable?
This question has been asked for at least the past 5 years, by some significant and experienced voices. The latest IPCC report is clear on the answer though: not yet, but we’re very close to that point.
Global warming is now at 1.1° C above pre-industrial levels. We have reached this point because we have been unable to deliver on the “rapid and far-reaching action” called for by scientists and the global community that is needed to limit warming.
So why haven’t we taken urgent and rapid action, and why do some believe it is still possible that we can now, when we couldn’t before?
Why the 1.5° C Target?
Limiting global warming to 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels is a critical goal for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change. Here are some of the key reasons why:
Reducing climate-related risks and impacts: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees will help to reduce the severity and frequency of climate-related risks and impacts, such as extreme weather events, droughts, wildfires, and social unrest, which can have significant social and economic costs.
Creating new economic opportunities: The transition to a low-carbon economy can create new economic opportunities in sectors such as renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable agriculture, as well as new jobs and innovation. A whole new range of products and services will be needed to underpin the transformation.
Protecting vulnerable ecosystems and species: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees can help to protect vulnerable ecosystems and species from the worst impacts of climate change. These ecosystems are essential to local communities and global supply chains.
Improving public health: Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees can also improve public health by reducing air pollution, which can cause respiratory illnesses and other health problems and causes rising unemployment.
Overall, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees is a critical goal for limiting cost to business of climate change, and creating new sustainable business opportunities.
What If We Exceed the 1.5° C Target?
For each increment over 1.5° C the impact of the following risks will be much worse:
More frequent and severe extreme weather events: As global temperatures rise, we are likely to see more frequent and severe heat waves, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and other extreme weather events. These can cause significant damage to infrastructure, crops, and property, and put lives at risk.
Sea level rise: As temperatures rise, glaciers and ice sheets are melting, causing sea levels to rise. This can lead to coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies, threatening coastal communities and ecosystems.
Food and water insecurity: Climate change can affect the availability and quality of food and water, particularly in regions that are already vulnerable to drought and water scarcity. This can lead to food and water insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict over resources.
Biodiversity loss: Climate change is causing changes in ecosystems and threatening biodiversity, with potentially significant impacts on human societies. This can lead to the loss of critical ecosystem services we need to survive, such as pollination, pest control, and water filtration.
We don’t need to wait to see the effects of these impacts either. People are dying and being displaced today from extreme and chronic events all around the world. Costs to business and society are already mounting. These will only get worse and more widespread.
What Action Must be Taken To Meet the 1.5° C Target?
Meeting the target requires rapid and ambitious action across all sectors and regions. Some key actions required to achieve this goal include:
Rapid and deep decarbonization of the global energy system: This includes a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydro power. It also includes improving energy efficiency and reducing energy demand.
Transformation of the transportation sector: This includes electrifying transportation systems, promoting active and public transportation, and reducing the use of fossil fuels in shipping and aviation.
Sustainable land use and agriculture: This includes reducing deforestation and promoting reforestation, improving soil health, and reducing emissions from livestock and fertilizer use.
Sustainable marine use and aquaculture: This includes reducing overfishing, preventing illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, establishing protected areas for 30% of the ocean, and limiting destructive fishing such as bottom trawling.
Sustainable urban development: This includes promoting compact and connected cities, improving public transportation, and increasing the use of renewable energy in buildings.
Carbon capture and storage: This includes developing and scaling up technologies to capture and store carbon emissions from industrial processes and power plants.
Lifestyle changes: This includes reducing consumption of high-emission goods and services, and reducing waste.
International cooperation: Achieving the 1.5-degree goal will require international cooperation and coordination, including through global climate agreements, financing mechanisms, and technology transfer.
Overall, achieving the 1.5 degree goal will require significant investments, innovation, and collaboration across multiple sectors and regions.
Why Are We Not On Track For the Target?
The main reason we are not on track is lack of political and personal will, and insufficient finance. The transformation required is vast, it is very hard to achieve and requires leadership and dedication to action at the global level.
At the national level, decision making is still short term, prioritising short-term economic growth over long-term sustainability. Many countries are still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, and emissions continue to rise in some sectors and regions. The financing required to support the transition to a low-carbon economy is often insufficient or inaccessible, particularly in developing countries. There is plenty of money available, but distributing it has been a challenge.
There is also a lack of awareness, interest, or understanding of climate change issues at the societal level, with individuals understandably prioritising their personal short-term needs over future concerns.
What Can Be Done?
Fortunately, the path forward is clear, the challenge is that it is a hard path to walk, and particularly to walk first. There is significant first-mover disadvantage for governments and for business in being the first to invest in the changes needed, and significant benefit to being a follower who benefits from these investments without contributing.
The vast majority of change must be undertaken by business, as business operations are the primary cause of all emissions. It is government’s role to enable and facilitate the process of change, to ensure a level playing field and inventivise business to make the fundamental transformation necessary.
What Should Government Do?
Some of the most important actions a government can take to play its part in limiting global warming are:
Setting targets: Governments must set ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, such as achieving net-zero emissions by 2040. These targets can provide a framework for action and help to drive investment and innovation. The government can also fund research to publish roadmaps to meet these targets.
Regulating emissions: Governments can put in place regulations and policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors, such as transportation, industry, and electricity generation. This can include measures like fuel economy standards, and renewable energy mandates.
Levelling the playing field: Governments should implement policies and incentives to support businesses that take the first step and invest in the necessary changes quickly. This must offset the first-mover disadvantage that business faces without government support.
Supporting clean energy: Governments should incentivize the development and adoption of clean energy technologies, such as wind and solar power, through policies like tax credits, grants, and subsidies. They can also invest directly in the development of these technologies as a societal benefit. This can help to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Investing in infrastructure: Governments must invest in infrastructure to support a low-carbon economy, such as energy transfer and storage infrastructure, building out public transportation systems, and improving the energy efficiency of buildings.
International cooperation: Climate change is a global problem that requires international cooperation. Governments must work together to develop and implement aligned policies and agreements to address climate change so that initial costs and disadvantages are shared.
What Can Business Do?
Businesses also play a critical role in limiting global warming. While government’s role enables and facilitates, business’s role is to act. Some of the main ways in which businesses can contribute to addressing climate change are:
Reducing emissions: Businesses must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by improving energy efficiency, switching to renewable energy sources, and implementing other sustainability measures throughout their operations and their supply chain.
Investing in clean energy: Businesses can invest in the development and deployment of clean energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, and support the growth of the clean energy sector. These investments can deliver good returns in the medium term.
Adopting sustainable practices: Businesses can adopt sustainable practices throughout their operations, such as reducing waste and water usage, using sustainable materials, minimising environmental impacts, and designing products for longevity and repairability (circular economy and whole-lifecycle design process).
Advocating for policy change: Businesses can group together and use their influence to advocate for policies and regulations that support a low-carbon economy and the transition to renewable energy. This includes holding the government to account and ensuring government levels the playing field.
What Are The Barriers?
Crucially, there are barriers to taking these actions that have contributed to the inaction to date. These include:
Political and economic interests: Climate action can conflict with the interests of powerful industries and individuals, who lobby against or resist policies that threaten their profits or influence.
Short-term thinking: Politicians prioritize short-term goals, such as re-election or immediate economic growth, over long-term sustainability and climate action. Businesses may also prioritize short-term goals, such as quarterly profits or immediate growth.
Lack of public support: Climate action is not a top priority for the public, or there is often disagreement on the best approach to addressing climate change.
Complexity and uncertainty: Climate change is a complex and multifaceted issue, with many scientific, technological, and social uncertainties. This can make it difficult for leaders to develop effective solutions.
Resource constraints: Governments may lack the resources, expertise, or capacity to implement ambitious climate policies, particularly in developing countries with limited resources.
International coordination: Climate change is a global problem that requires international cooperation and coordination. However, geopolitical tensions, differing priorities, and other factors can make it difficult to achieve consensus and collaboration on climate action.
Cost and competitiveness: The cost of transitioning to low-carbon technologies and practices can be a significant barrier for businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises. There may also be concerns about competitiveness if some businesses face higher costs than others.
Lack of information and awareness: Businesses may not be fully aware of the risks and opportunities associated with climate change, or they may lack information on how to implement sustainable practices and technologies.
Regulatory uncertainty: Businesses are hesitant to invest in sustainable practices and technologies if they are unsure about future regulatory requirements or if regulations are perceived to be unstable or unpredictable.
Limited access to financing: The availability of financing can be a barrier for businesses looking to invest in sustainable practices and technologies, particularly in developing countries or for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Resistance to change: There may be resistance to change within businesses, particularly among those who are invested in the status quo or who are sceptical of new technologies or practices.
What Needs To Happen Now?
There are some key actions needed from government and business immediately in order to stand a chance of limiting the impact of global warming. These include:
Collaborate: Government and business need to come together with shared ambition to create a framework under which the targets can be met. Business needs to demand government takes action. Government needs to hear business’ concerns and create policies to incentivise and level the playing field. Business needs to commit to the shared responsibility of long-term sustainability over maximising short-term returns. Entrenched interests must be brought out into the open. This must all be done publicly to demonstrate leadership.
Finance: Funds must be made available to make necessary transformation at all scales and levels of business. Funds must be easy to access and as the future risk will lie with the investor, government should share the risk and underwrite sustainable investment against future losses. As seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, unscrupulous actors will take advantage of such schemes, but the need to activate vast sums quickly and easily outweighs the need for high scruitiny. Such losses must be costed in.
Act: All parties must make good on their commitments and report their progress publicly. The sense of shared responsibility and shared success must be maintained and the media must celebrate successes. The government should pull together all of the strands of progress, big and small, from across business, and create an overarching shared narrative that enables broader collaboration and deeper financing until the majority are engaged and delivering.
To achieve these actions requires leadership from individuals committed to the shared responsibility of meeting the targets, with the ability to connect and convince others and drive a movement through government and industry. Limiting the impact of global warming may start with a dedicated few, but ultimately it will require the commitment and tireless efforts of many moving in lockstep towards the same shared goal.
In short, we need Shared Stewardship.